All past news articles from this site.
November 7
- Politicians spin the news before the election; pollsters spin it after. Rasmussen is bragging that they called 24 out of 24 states correctly. This is true, although sometimes the actual numbers were upwards of ten points off. They're also bragging about forecasting states correctly like Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, and Maryland (states that were never up for grabs). They're also claiming they forecast Iowa for Bush correctly when in reality they said it was a 48-48 tie. Undisclousde is the fact that an essay from the company's owner said that undecideds will break against the president suggesting Kerry should have won the state.
Zogby, better known as the company whose owner went on the national television the night before the election and pronounced Kerry the winner, says they also got their predictions correct. True, but only if you count the margin of error.
I haven't been able to find a claim from Gallup that they polled correctly. Probably because it didn't. Their widely polls with the radical skews during the election season wound up projecting the race as "too close to call" with both candidates at 49-49. They also managed to get Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all wrong. Not much to give them credit about there.
Survey USA has put together a fancy Excel spreadsheet explaining how they forecast only 4.9% of states incorrectly, better than almost every other polling company out there. Nice on the surface, but keep in mind they projected results for 49 of the 50 states. A look at their website shows that they incorrectly forecast Iowa and did not poll in several critical battleground states.
Mason-Dixon posted a chart on their website regarding their returns. Of all the pollsters, perhaps Mason-Dixon did it best. They were widely criticized by Democrats as having a pro-Bush leaning during the presidential race. In the end though their results turned out to be almost spot-on; only Minnesota was forecast incorrectly.
All of this begs the question: are these polls really that helpful? If enough companies take enough polls, someone is bound to get close to the final result. And with so many so-called experts projectin the race, why couldn't they have done better? The answer is simple: polling pretty much sucks. It's great for giving you a rough idea of what's going on, but it can't give you exact numbers because of the polling margin of error (as well as error in poll design itself.
But everyone wants to know what's going to happen. So expect to see us back in 2008. In the meantime, you can see our new website already in action. We're over at Race2008.
- The Seattle Times has an excellent article on how the non-traditional polls did this year.
November 5
- AP is reporting that an election flaw in Guhana county in Ohio gave Bush 3,893 more votes than he was supposed to receive. For as yet undetermined reasons, a machine incorrectly reported that Bush recevied more than 4,000 votes on a machine. The error quickly came to light because only a fraction of that many voted in the precinct itself. When a manual recount of the ballots was done, Bush was found to have received only 115 votes.
The chance in vote total has not yet been included in Ohio's unofficial vote total, as the county has not officially reported the issue to the state yet.
- Along with the contest winners, we had four "featured entries" who successfully predicted the election outcome. One election projection website got it right: Poll Booth. An online publication about the pro-life community, Lifenews, got it right.
More interestingly, the two online sports betting websites had it exactly correct as well. These are Intrade and TradeSports. In 2008 I'll make a point of checking these sites again. There may be something to it.
- The contest now has its tentative winners: Mark S and "220 Guys". Mark was the first person to correctly project the final election results. "220 guys" was the lucky entrant who correctly projected the election and won the "winner's lottery."
Of the 2,961 entries elgible to win the contest, only 30 of you managed to pick the correct response. A tough prediction indeed! I hope you all learned just how difficult it is to predict the winner of a presidential election, even the day before when you have the same data that the "experts" do. That was my goal in running the contest. Well, that and having a little fun on the site.
I have contacted Mark and "220 Guys". I'll wait a week to make sure no states suddenly flip as the absentee ballots are counted. That appears highly doubtful though, and so I believe we have our winners.
Thanks again to all of you who participated in the contest.
- Fox has now declared Iowa for Bush. They haven't updated their map, but it's a headline on their site. I'll go update the map and conclude the contest.
- ABC and CBS have called Iowa for Bush. One more state and the contest is officially ended. I'll go begin figuring out who wins...
November 4
- The AP is having a disagreement with the Secretary of State's office in New Mexico regarding the counting of the ballots. AP says Bush is up by 8000+ votes. The Secretary of State says Kerry is up 1800+. AP responds by saying that the Secretary's data for several counties is old and doesn't include their absentee ballots.
ABC, CBS, and FOX are still projecting New Mexico for Bush so I have not "uncalled" it on the map.
More details here.
- In NBC's brilliant election coverage, a giant map of the United States was on the ice rink in Rockefeller Plaza. The states were painted red when President Bush won a state, blue when Kerry won a state, and yellow when Tim Russert had to relieve himself.
--Conan O'Brien (11/04)
- The results of the election in Iowa won't be known until next week when 15,000 provisional ballots and as many as 50,000 absentee ballots are tallied. With a 13,000+ vote lead at this point, Bush will likely win the state.
Race2004 will wait until either after the counting or until three networks call the state before we declare our own result for it. Once it has been called we can determine the contest winner.
- Now that Race2008 is active, we will be posting less political news on Race2004. Expect to hear follow-up stories about this election, but any stories about the continuing political game will be posted on the new site.
- Just an FYI, folks. Race2008 is now open for business. It will be a discussion blog to talk about, what else?, the race for the White House in 2008. It will be more interactive than Race2004 so I hope you will join us there.
- Democrats have selected a new Minority Leader. Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) gets the job. Dick Durbin and Chris Dodd flirted with competing for the job, but they weren't able to attract the support necessary to make a run for it.
Reid will have his work cut out for him. Many Republicans are already urging Bush to push a much stronger conservative agenda in his second term. He is somewhat vulnerable because he is from a swing state, but he was also just reelected so he won't be vulnerable until 2010.
- In a Democracy, the people get the kind of government they deserve.
-- Winston Churchill
- FYI: The Democrats have 17 Senate seats up for reelection in 2006. The Republicans will have 15.
- The word is out that the provisional ballots in Ohio will be analyzed and counted. In 2000, 87% of the provisional ballots wound up being counted. So if there are 175,000 provisional ballots, that'll be 152,250 ballots needing to be counted. For Kerry to tie the election in Ohio he'd need to win 89% of those. More if absentee ballots are more than 50% for Bush.
This is why Kerry conceeded. Not all of those provisional ballots were cast in heavy Kerry districts, and even in the best of the Kerry districts he didn't get 89% support. That's what makes it virtually impossible for Kerry to win Ohio.
- ABC joins CBS and Fox News in calling New Mexico for Bush. Iowa now remains the only state left uncalled. Bush probably has it, but it's still too close to call.
Does anyone out there know how long it will be until Iowa counts its absentee ballots? Once Iowa is known I can declare the contest winner.
- Now is a good time to stockpile both porn and gasoline. And to see Bruce Springsteel before his "accident". Also, go see Mount Rushmore before Bush's face gets carved in it.
--Air America Radio, Unfiltered (11/4)
- Y'all will be pleased to know that I have begun work on Race2008. I hope to have it up before the end of the day.
- I have removed my "Thoughts on the Election" essay. I have calmed down slightly and realize that whatever my opinions are, essays of that nature are not appropriate for this site.
For the many that sent me kind letters of support, I thank you. And for the few that sent gloating or other obnoxious e-mail, remember that politics is a pendulum that continues to swing. Neither abolition nor suffrage happened over night, but they did happen. They were historic inevitabilities. The same goes with core values in which I believe. The only issue in dispute is how long it will take to reach that point, and how many people will shed blood, sweat, and tears first.
So savor your victory. Anyone under 60 considers the Johnson-Goldwater race in politics to be "ancient history." So too shall the Bush administration pass. You control the present, but the victors write the history. And as I said, I believe the liberal cause is a historic inevitability. I think even onetime segregationist Strom Thurmond understood that in the end.
November 3
- CBS and Fox have both called New Mexico for Bush. ABC seems to have removed their electoral map. (Can anyone find it and e-mail me a link? I can't find it).
- Senator Bill Frist has already begun a Republican "victory tour" of the South. This is widely viewed as an opportunity to shore up support for a run for president in 2008.
- A comforting thought for Democrats: the day after Bush Sr's election in 1988, no one outside Arkansas had ever heard of Bill Clinton.
If I didn't know so little about Democratic governors I'd start looking over lists of them to pick out which ones might make a 2008 run. And even if there aren't any likely candidates, there's always members of the Democratic House and Senate. Or even a Democratic head of a state legislature. Or a military figure. Or a diplomat. Or a businessman.
Maybe I should start brainstorming a list for Race2008. Might cheer me up. E-mail me if you have any suggestions.
- Yes, I realize that's quite an essay below. And quite a divergence from the usual tone of this site. I should regain some semblence of composure by tomorrow and will continue my analysis then.
And yes, I realize that some donors to this site will probably be offended by it. Please understand my anger, and know that I will return to my usual webmaster self within a day or so... I hope.
- (4:42pm) CNN, ABC, and CBS are all now projecting Wisconsin for Kerry. I have therefore updated the map and given the state to him.
This marks the first incorrect forecast Race2004 made in the presidential election.
- A few days ago I got an e-mail from a Kerry supporter who was angry with the Republican leaning polls I was including in my methodology, particularly Mason-Dixon. Now that we know Mason-Dixon was probably the most accurate of the pollsters in battleground states, I wrote him back to ask him his opinion.
This is what he wrote:
The website is great and offered a great learning experience. And we all got a lesson in perception of bias--Mason-Dixon surely wasn't what I WANTED to believe. In fact, I'm still in deep mourning. I now know why the anchors on TV always hedge their bets--and let the transient pundits go out on a limb.
If you've seen the contest results, you'll know that most of the website supporters were way off too. We had over 2,100 predictions of a Kerry win, versus just 838 predictions of a Bush win.
Moral of the story? It's important to listen to all the polls, especially those telling you what you don't want to hear.
- What an awful day to be a Democrat.
--A friend of mine
- (2:06pm) Kerry is now giving his concession speech.
- I'm listening to Al Franken on Air America. He's talking with his right-wing friend who calls into the show every day. They two are bitterly arguing like I have never heard them do before.
A portent of things to come? Bush won this election fair and square. But it's going to be a little while before Democrats let go of their anger and begin to look within.
- The pollsters' "cover your ass" process has begun. First up, John Zogby, who bluntly said the election was going to Kerry on the November 1st Daily Show with Jon Stewart.
Zogby: We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.
We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side.
- You invaded to bring us this?
--Jon Stewart, on Iraq's opinion about the election (11/2)
- Of note: of the 74 Republicans who were elected to Congress in 1994 in in the big GOP takeover, only 40 are still in politics. This takes into account anyone who lost last night.
- It's too early to make a complete analysis, but early analysis suggests that Mason-Dixon was the most accurate pollster in battleground states just prior to the election.
- Candidates for 2008 are already lining up. Several of the more prominant Democrats and Republicans all campaigned throughout the country for struggling candidates. (Getting the phone numbers of all the local Democratic activists and precinct captains, I'm sure).
Democrats: Hillary Clinton, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, Barack Obama
Republicans: John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Bill Frist, George Pataki
With such a wide range of people and geographies, don't look to a Constitutional amendment allowing governor Arnold to run for president.
- (11:58am) I just woke up to learn that the election is over. Upon learning that the number of provisional ballots was less than expected, Kerry called Bush and conceeded this morning.
I'll make appropriate updates to the site in the next hour. Right now I'm barely able to read the screen, much less think.
- (5:08am) CNN has projected Wisconsin for Kerry. If two more networks follow I'll update our tally.
A Kerry victory in Wisconsin would, incidentially, be consistent with our Race2004 projection.
Update: Oops! My error. This would not be consistent with our projection. The printout I had in front of me was incorrect.
- (4:56am) The networks are now projecting that Senator Daschle will soon be ex-Senator Daschle. Daschle was widely considered to be one of the primary obstacles to the arch-conservative justices that Bush wants to appoint to the Supreme Court.
I never thought the day would come that I'd pray for Rehnquist to regain his health and to return to work for another four years.
- (4:52am) As you have noticed, I have edited the front page of the site. We don't know who won yet, and I'm going to track the final election results as best I can. Bleh!
Toward that end, the top map is now the official election results. Official meaning whatever vote totals the various Secretaries of State have certified in their states. Failing that, a consensus among a majority of the of broadcast networks.
I'll keep an eye on their projection several times per day. But if you notice that any of the networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, or FOX) make a projection that I don't have, feel free to e-mail it to me.
- (4:17am) John Thune is giving a victory speech in the South Dakota Senate race. Tom Daschle hasn't conceeded, but this doesn't bode well for him. It looks like Daschle may be out of a job and the Democrats out of another Senate seat.
- (4:16am) It's late and the Bush folks are still partying at. If Bush was smart, he'd come down and give a victory speech. That way he heads into the inevitable court battles and challenges with a clear psychological advantage. To say nothing for how his victory party will look on the news when placed next to the Kerry supporters despondently walking away in the pouring rain after being suddenly told to go home.
- (3:52am) It's become clear I will need a methodology to determine what states are owned by what candidate. Obviously what is finally certified by the various Secretaries of State will be the official count, but that may be a while.
In the meantime, Race2004 will consider a state to have gone for a candidate if three of the five major networks call the state. These are ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, and CNN.
Watch for a new map in a few minutes.
- (3:50am) CBS has declared Nevada for Bush. Yet another state in life with Race2004's prediction.
- (3:21am) My husband pointed out that the pundits haven't noticed yet that part of the blame for Kerry's troubles may fall on his pick of John Edwards. Edwards is charismatic, yes. But he hasn't helped deliver a single new state since 2000. (New Hampshire flipped to Kerry, but that's probably not from Edwards). Nor did North Carolina and Virginia become battleground states as Kerry hoped (although Bush's support did erode somewhat in both).
Had Kerry chosen Vilsack from Iowa he'd easily have +7 votes for that state. Bill Richardson in New Mexico would have brought another +5 for New Mexico (which may be lost to Bush otherwise) and made the other Southewestern states more competitive. Even Gephardt with his suport among labor might have led to a clear victory in Ohio.
We'll never know, of course. But it is an interesting thought. When the pundits start talking about it in a day or two, remember that you heard it here first.
- "I don't know what's taking them so long. It's not a big state, and someone could have gone door-to-door with a clipboard by now."
-- MSNBC's Chris Matthews on not having an official NBC projection for New Hampshire at 3:15am
- (3:03am) An announcement was made at the location of the Democratic victory/concession speech telling everyone to go home for the night. Looks like we're in for another long one...
- (2:36am) ABC and CNN both project Kerry will win Hawaii. New totals are... Bush: 249, Kerry: 242.
Yet another correct projection for Race2004.
Only five states remain up for grabs. Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Ohio certainly will not be decided tonight. And the Iowa Secretary of State has said they will not be able to issue finish counting tonight as well.
- (2:33am) It's also worth noting that Race2004 is 100% on track right now for projecting the election. How's that for excellence?
- (2:32am) Edwards just gave a 30-second speech promising that the Democrats would fight until every vote is counted. We knew they'd fight as they did in 2000, but it's worth noting that they're now saying so publicly.
- (2:31am) Everyone but ABC is now saying that Michigan goes to Kerry. ABC says it's too close to call.
Assuming Ohio is too close to call, the current totals are: Kerry-238, Bush-249. Damn this is going down to the wire!
- (2:25am) Something to think about. If the election winds up in a 269-269 tie, it's going to be a mess 100 times worse than 2000. The fight will begin with both sides begin demanding recounts in each other's states. And if the recounts fail and it stays at 269-269, the issue goes to the House. But it's the NEW House of Representatives that deals with it. And they won't be seated until January 6. So the earliest we can have a formal winner will be early January.
That being said, unless Kerry suddenly gets a popular vote mandate, he'll get creamed in the House. So he may conceed once his reelections fails and the House vote will simply become a formality.
- (2:18am) CBS has called Michigan for Kerry. And ABC is now concurring that Minnesota is going to Kerry.
It's looking more and more like it'll come down to a huge recount-style mess in Ohio. Part of it will depend on what happens in the other states. If Kerry wants a recount in Ohio, the Bush folks might demand recounts in half a dozen Kerry states. Yuck!
- (2:04am) New Hampshire has been called for Kerry. Another 4 votes for him.
At this point the easiest way for Bush to win is to get enough states so that it doesn't matter if Kerry wins Ohio or not. The delay in Iowa (a possible Bush pick-up) and the loss in New Hampshire and Minnesota makes that more difficult.
- (1:59am) Kerry supporters still cling to hope. While NBC has declared Ohio for Bush, CNN has declared it "too close to call" and colored the state in green. There are as many as 300,000 absentee ballots and perhaps another 250,000 provision ballots. The Kerry campaign does not want concede Ohio until those are counted.
In Iowa, the Secretary of State's office says that broken vote counting machines, delayed polling closing times, and worker fatigue may prevent the state from providing a preliminary voting count until sometime on Wednesday.
On a lighter note, CBS has declared Minnesota for Kerry. That's another 10 votes towards a... hmm... Victory?
November 2
- (1:38am) One bright spot for the Democrats. Obama's crushing victory in Illinois gives them a rising star who, with a lot of luck, may become the first African-American president in another 10-15 years.
- (1:35am) It's a disaster for the Democrats. So far this evening they have lost three Senate seats, four House seats, one governorship and quite possibly the presidency.
Senator Daschle, the minority leader in the Senate, may lose his seat as well. 87% of precincts reporting in South Dakota and he's down by 2%.
On a lighter note, it's looking like my Race2004 projection may just be accurate after all. Being a Democratic I'd happily trade, but I may have to settle for gloating at all the critics of my methodology.
- (1:33am) Bush is up 106,000 votes in Ohio with 91% of precincts reporting. Cuyahoga is now up to 99% reporting, so that's no longer a factor. Maaaybe another 2,000 votes for Kerry. So it's now down to the remaining precincts around the state (there are some in Cincinatti I hear), absentee votes, and provisional votes.
The Democratic strategy is now to watch and wait. To see whether they can win enough other states to win the presidency even if they get Ohio. Ohio may not matter in the end.
- (1:18am). Fox News just gave Alaska and Ohio to Bush, bringing him to 269 votes. If that holds, then Kerry is lost. The best Kerry can hope for is a tie, and he'll lose the tie-breaker in the House.
- (1:11am) Candi Crowley from CNN is at the Democratic HQ. She's noting that the mood has suddenly gone serious, and officials are suddenly unavailable for comment. Methinks the Democratic leaders are meeting to figure out how they're going to get the 117,000 votes they're behind in Ohio. (21,000+ will come from Cuyahoga. The rest from... other counties? absentee votes? nowhere?).
One thing is sure. If the networks call Ohio for Bush, the Democrats are going to be asked "how do you still expect to win?" To answer that question they need an answer, and they may need it before long.
- (12:37am) Kerry is 120,000 votes behind in Ohio. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) has only 76% reporting. By my estimates Kerry will get about 46,000 more votes from there. More if the remaining precincts lean heavier Kerry, or if they have more voters. (The latter is quite possible because some of their polls closed later because of so many voters).
Either way, that leaves Kerry with another 75,000 voters in Ohio. That'll be tough to close. Possible though, especially if counting absentee ballots becomes an issue.
Could Ohio be headed for a Florida-style recount? Theoretically possible. But Kerry won't press the issue if he loses enough other states so that he can't mathmatically win even if he gets Ohio.
And so the race goes on... and on... and on...
- (12:31am). As of right now, all that is left is Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Alaska, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire. No states have flipped since 2000.
In order for Kerry to win, he must take Ohio AND all of the other states he took in 2000: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
But... Kerry can lose one of the smaller states: Iowa, New Mexico, and Hawaii. If Kerry snags New Hampshire (quite possible), then he can lose two. Kerry may be headed for a loss in New Mexico, so that would be one small defeat. He can afford to lose another, but that's it.
I know, tough to envision this. Probably why you're watching tv instead of reading this. I'll write more in a few minutes as more states are called.
- 12:05am. The race is rapidly coming to a close. Statewise, at least. The ballots may still take hours (days?!?) to be counted.
At present, Ohio has Bush up 120,000 votes with about 2/3 of precincts reporting in. BUT... a lot that are left are in Kerry territory. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) has 800 precincts still unreported. The other precincts in the county are going 62-38 for Kerry. So expect a big jump in Kerry votes as they arrive.
This is important for Kerry because he can't win without Ohio. Kerry no longer has the option of sweeping all the lesser states. If Bush wins Ohio we can all go to bed.
- However, it's interesting to note that the Democrats went to federal court in Ohio late this afternoon about the long lines at several county's polling stations. The lines were caused by a lack of enough voting machines. An injunction was granted allowing the polling places to stay open later than normal.
Apparently the lines were very long. CNN reported that even now, when the polls in Ohio are officially closed, the lines are still at least three hours long in some places.
- ... and with that, I'm off to watch the results come in. I'll post again periodically, but I won't be doing a live simulcast. Turn on your tv's and watch what I'm watching. I hope you have enjoyed today's news. And now it's off to the races!
- Don't forget!
1 - You can download my handy guide to the election. Perfect for helping out with the evening.
2 - To donate to the site if you have appreciated my work. The donate button is just above the news.
- 6pm exit poll numbers. As always, take these with a (very large) grain of salt.
State: Bush - Kerry
Pennsylvania: 46 - 53
Florida: 49 - 51
North Carolina: 52 - 48
Ohio: 49 - 51
Arkansas: 53 - 47
New Mexico: 49 - 50
Lousiana: 56 - 43
Colorado: 51 - 48
Arizona: 55 - 45
Minnesota: 44 - 54
Wisconsin: 47 - 52
Iowa: 49 - 49
If these are correct, this almost assure Kerry the election. They're probably not going to be correct though, so watch tonight to see what happens.
- Race2004's final projection is now posted. We project Bush will win with 296 votes, Kerry will get 242.
I'll debrief the how's and why's of this tomorrow, but I thought you'd be interested to know that my personal take has very different numbers. Kerry at 311, and Bush at 227.
- CNN is reporting that voter turnout appears to be the heaviest in state history.
- It's now after 6pm eastern. Polls have begun closing in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Neither state will be called until after 7pm when the remainder of the states close.
So let me be the first: "Kentucky and Indiana are officially going for George W. Bush. George Bush now leads the electoral race with 19 electoral votes."
- The election contest is now closed to new entries.
- The online betting sites (Intrade and Tradesports) apparently had a massive shift to Kerry today. Kerry shares jumped from $45/share to $75/share today. (Bush and Kerry shares trade in at $100 if they win the election, $0 if they lose).
- My list of official projections is almost complete, and includes projections for a number of websites plus my own. You can check it out here.
- If anyone out there will be watching a single channel this evening, please toss a videotape in your VCR and videotape the election coverage for me. I'd VERY much appreciate it. (Put it on extended record so you can get 6 hours on a T-120 tape).
I'd like to analyze the news coverage of the election and would be extremely grateful if you could do this and send it to me. Thank you!
- The map on the cover page is now our final projection. Bush will win it, 296-242. Or so our methodology says. My personal twist to follow in a few moments...
- If Zogby is releasing any more poll data, I can't find it. So I'll close out my analysis in a few minutes and upload my personal twist on this site's projection.
- With less than one hour before polls begin to close, this site is rapidly coming to a close. Assuming we don't wind up in another Florida-style mess, my plan is to update for a few days after the election then gradually turn it into an election poll archive site.
Since development work began on Race2004 six months ago, I estimate my husband and I have spent about a thousand hours working on the site. This includes finding and entering poll data, programming the website, maintaining the web servers, and responding to your many e-mails.
To help pay for running the site and for my efforts, I have asked for donations. Many of you have responded with almost $2,000 in donations. For this I thank you.
For the rest of you, if you have enjoyed this website please consider making a donation.. No amount is too small, and I encourage you to donate at least $1. I would like to run Race2008 in four years, and plan to make it even bigger and better. Earning more than $1 per hour for 1000 hours of effort will go a long way to bringing Race2008 to life.
- Thanks to the webmaster of PhotoSIG in helping me tweak the site today. PhotoSIG is a photography community site dedicated to critiquing photographs, and a must-see for amateur and professional photographers alike. Go bookmark it and check it out tomorrow after the election.
- Sorry the site went down. I was installing a caching function to help it load faster today. It may be a tweaky for the next 10-15 minutes, but should be much faster after that.
- Slate magazine has 4pm exit polls for today.
Again, these are VERY unreliable. But more reliable than the 2pm exit polls.
State: Bush - Kerry
Nevada: 50 - 48
Colorado: 53 - 46
North Carolina: 51 - 49
Pennsylvania: 45 - 54
Ohio: 49 - 50
Florida: 49 - 50
Michigan: 47 - 51
New Mexico: 48 - 50
Wisconsin: 46 - 51
Much tighter since the 2pm races, but Kerry still has the lead electorally.
- Here are some early turnout reports from CNN.
Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.
Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.
Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.
- Race2004's Guide to the Election has been posted. It's a one-page sheet you can print out and watch as the results come in. If you have colored pencils, you can even color in the map as the evening goes on.
Drop me an e-mail if you like the sheet and intend to use it this evening. I'd like to know if this is a popular feature, or if I should do it a different way in 2008.
- Based on early (11:43am) data, Zogby says to watch Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania for possible surprises. This is undoubtedly based on his phone polling today, not exit polling. But since some of these people will have voted today, his polls may find some intriguing results.
No prediction is made what the surprises may be, but since Virginia looks to be Bush, it may be a strong Kerry showing. No idea what it'll be in the other states, as they're all battlegrounds and fairly close.
- Here's the 2pm exit polling data for you.
But first this caveat. In 2000 early exit polling had Bush winning the popular vote. Gore won. In 2002, early exit polling was very inaccurate in determining who won the various races. Also, exit polling does not include absentee balloting and advanced voting. With that in mind...
State: Bush - Kerry
Arizona: 55 - 45
Colorado: 51 - 48
Loiusiana: 57 - 42
Pennsylvania: 40 - 60
Ohio: 48 - 52
Florida: 48 - 51
Michigan: 47 - 51
New Mexico: 48 - 50
Minnesota: 40 - 58
Wisconsin: 43 - 52
Iowa: 49 - 49
New Hampshire: 41 - 57
These numbers are VERY UNRELIABLE, but if they were true Kerry would be the next president of the United States.
Update: The Drudge Report says that this was based on 59% women, 41% men. Men favor Bush so expect the race to become a lot closer as the day goes on. Assuming those missing men show up to the poll, that is.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead. This is an "old" poll from last week.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead. This is an "old" poll from last week.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Bush.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Minnesota has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Minnesota has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Michigan has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Michigan has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- Important!
Our server is running at 99% of capacity this afternoon and we're headed towards more than 50,000 visitors today.
This has our site going really sluggish. So rather than hitting refresh over and over, please wait an hour or so between visits. I promise the news will still be here, and it'll speed up the site a little. As it is we're seriously lagging today.
- A new Harris Poll poll with Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Harris Poll poll with Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Harris Poll poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- Voter News Service (whatever their new name is called) was supposed to start releasing prelimiary exit polling data at 11am today. I hope to have data for you shortly.
- I have updated the front page to include the second map. Hopefully I did it correctly and it's displaying correctly on everyone's screens. E-mail me if it's messed up.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in New Hampshire has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- Earlier this morning I reported this story:
In New Jersey, some voters are being called with a Normal Schwarzkopf impersonator urging people to vote for Kerry.
I now have an update on this story. The DNC reponded that GOP operatives spliced a recording of the conversation to hide the part when the caller identified himself. He said his name is General Tony McPeak, and that he worked previously for Norman Schwarzkopf. He did not say he was Schwarzkopf himself.
The amusing thing is this: I got this phone call yesterday. I know no more than you do about anyone editing the message, but the call I got clearly identified himself Tony McPeak. It was not confusing and at no time sounded like it was Schwarzkopf. Unless there was an entirely different message going around (theoretically possible if unlikely), this is the real story.
Now I'm wondering who it was that mixed the tape and said the Democrats made calls with it.
- The Drudge Report is reporting that votes were found recorded on machines scattered in various locations throughout Philadelphia before polls opened today. No word on who the votes were for.
Also, a gun was displayed at one polling location in Philadelphia. Police were summoned and surrounded the location. No other details are available.
Update: Apparently poll workers understood the readings on the machine. The counter did not say how many votes were already in the machine. Rather, they were the number of times the machines have been used previously. Or so Daily Kos is reporting.
- Dixville's Notch update. I was getting conflicting reports before, but AP is reporting that Bush received 19 votes and Kerry received 7.
Hart's Notch was a bit closer with 15 votes for each Bush and Kerry. Nader received one vote.
- With the American elections only 24 hours away, there will be only one clear winner and that will be Bush.
It is not about his ability to lead, it is about a flawed and manipulated election process. It is about corruption at the highest level to insure Bush will win, regardless of how the votes will be counted or where they will be counted.
-- From the front page of the English-language version of Pravda, the former official news service of the Soviet Union.
(This is surprising because Putin openly supports George Bush, and Russia media is currently subject to heavy government influence. Like Fox, but even more partisan.)
Update: Update: A Russian reader sent this e-mail.
The 'Pravda' of today has little to do with the official state paper of the Soviet Union. It has degraded (some would say progressed) to a conspiracy-theory tabloid. Think Area 51 and the secret Halliburton-alien deal. I doubt they would fall under the "Putin-controlled" label.
- Volusia county in Florida had a memory card failure wiping out 13,000 electronic votes. Fortunately these machines have a paper trail allowing the votes to be accurately retallied.
- Some Iowan voters were called with recorded messages from the Democratic candidate for governor in Indiana. The Indiana candidate's campaign acknowledged that it was an error in their phone banks.
AP reports that some elderly voters in Pennsylvania are receiving calls and being told that they are inelgible to vote.
In New Jersey, some voters are being called with a Norman Schwarzkopf impersonator urging people to vote for Kerry.
Update: See above story.
- In South Dakota, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order that that Republicans may not write down license plate numbers or follow Native Americans from polling places during today's election.
The case was brought by the Daschle senatorial campaign, and the judge is a long-time ally of Daschle. Daschle is depending on heavy Native American turnout to help him squeek through this election. As of early this morning Republicans were undecided whether to appeal.
- Acting Chief Justice Stevens of the Supreme Court turned down Democratic requests to stay the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling in Ohio. The ruling allows the Republican operatives to challenge voters in Ohio polls.
The Democrats can appeal to the full Supreme Court, but given time constraints this is highly unlikely.
(Of note: Justice Stevens is arguably the most liberal member of the Supreme Court. So one can't claim that his decision is partisan based).
- Y'know, that new bin Laudin tape really worked. He's up three points in the latest Zogby poll.
--David Letterman, Nov. 1, 2004
- Yesterday I reported that Chief Justice Rehnquist was too ill to return to his job at the Supreme Court. He disclosed yesterday that he is undergoing chemotherapy and radiation therapy for thyroid cancer.
Doctors not involved in his treatment say the treatments are consistent with the more aggressive form of thyroid cancer. This type is usually fatal in a relatively short period of time.
So if you're undecided or wavering in who to vote for, consider voting with the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (and new justices in general) in mind. For many years Rehnquist has been one of the most outspoken conservatives on the court, and his depature could well redefine where the Supreme Court stands on many issues.
Update: One report said that 80% people with this type of cancer die within one year even with treatment. Also, his treatment is consistent with "heroic measures" used in this case.
- A number of you are kindly sending in donations. I wanted to let you know that I will be writing thank-you letters after the election. I am spending today focusing on making this site as interesting possible until tonight's results begin to arrive.
- I have tweaked my popular vote projections. I initially set them months ago based on Republican estmates of the voter turnout. Based on what I am hearing in the news, I am guesstimating the popular vote will be closer to 120,000,000. As such, I am tweaking the popular vote totals upwards.
This will not affect who wins any states, but does give increased power to the battleground states in the overall popular vote winner.
The old formula was based on an increase of 6% in voter turnout (8% in battleground states). The new formula is based on an increase of 8% in voter turnout (12% in battleground states).
I also found a minor bug. Pennsylvania was not flagged as a battleground state. This has been fixed.
- Curious what other sites are projecting? I am listing election projections from media outlets, polling companies, poll watching websites, and interesting notables. You can find them on our contest results page.
If you know of a notable election projection map on the website that I don't have, please e-mail it to me.
As today progresses I will be posting projections for Zogby, ARG, Electoral-vote.com, The Hotline, Mile High Delphi, Dale's Electoral College Breakdown, and Sam Wang's election projection. Let me know if you know of any other good ones.
- I decided to keep the contest open for new entries. Not so they can win--entries added today are not elgible to win. But so that people can still list their predictions along with everyone else's.
I'll close the contest tonight just before 6pm.
- George Bush's second presidential win is going to be just as Constitutionally valid as his third, fourth, and fifth.
-- Interview with a mock Bush supporter on Air America's Morning Sedition
- Vote, then immediately demand your vote be recounted.
-- Item #4 on today's "liberal agenda" on Air America's Morning Sedition (a political-comedy radio show).
- Lunatic and Illinois Senate candidate Alan Keyes has declared that any Roman Catholic who votes for Democrat Barack Obama is committing a mortal sin.
Boy the Illinois GOP choose badly when they asked him to run a "carpetbag campaign" for Senate.
- (6:22am) My husband and I are back from voting. We're depressed--there were no "I voted" stickers this year. In our opinion that's half the fun of voting!
- Lest I be accused of only writing about sleazy Republican tactics, I'm open to posting good stories about Democrats taking the low road. E-mail me if you see any good ones today.
- Yet another sleazy election tactic. Republican activists have been pretending to be campaigning for Kerry and gay rights in heavily conservative Republican areas of Florida.
As a gay man, this absolutely disgusts me. It's one thing to vote on the pro's and con's of gay rights. It's another thing to denegrate an entire group of people to score a few cheap points in an election. Wherever you live, I urge you to cast your vote so that it cancels out whatever impact sleazy activists like this may have.
- Here's a nice map of poll closing times.
- A new Elway Poll poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
This is actually a poll from October 16, but it wasn't in my listings so I added it for completeness.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Nevada has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Colorado has Bush in the lead.
- Survey USA's final projection in Colorado has Amendment 36 headed for defeat, 62-35.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Iowa has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in California has Kerry in the lead.
- "Cities are burning and the country is in civil war following the election... oh, wait, those are tomorrow night's headlines."
-- Jon Stewart, The Daily Show (Nov 1, 2004)
- The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled on the Republican issue of challengers in Ohio. Challengers may be present. This overturns the decisions of two previous judges and clears the way for Republican challengers in high population minority districts in Ohio.
Democratic lawyers said they would immediately appeal to the Supreme Court to overturn the decision. A ruling is not expected until partway through the morning at the earliest.
The New York Times reports that the Republicans are sending out 3,500 challengers, not just 2,300 as I earlier report. Democrats will be sending 2,000 poll monitors, but will not be challenging anyone.
Primarily at issue is a list of 35,000 voters who Ohio Republicans say may not be elgible to vote. The list contains voters whom the GOP says no longer live at their official address, a judgment based on the return of signature-required envelopes the GOP sent to new Democratic registrants. Some of these are, in fact, not valid registrants. Others are students away at college, seniors in retirement homes, military personnel stationed overseas, and Democrats who refused to sign for a GOP letter.
Challengers will also be present in other states. Republicans in Pennsylvania plan to challenge as many as 10,000 voters in heavy black areas of West Philadelphia. Republicans in Florida will challenge up to 1,700 convicted (and mostly black) felons. Republicans in New Mexico will have monitors in polls as well, and have not discounted the possibility they may challenge voters.
Kudos goes to the GOP and Democrats in Wisconsin for sitting down over the weekend and working out a solution. Together they compiled a list of 5,512 questionable registrations. Those people will be asked to produce ID. They can still vote without it, but their ballots will be noted as "challenged" and should the overall election be close they may be subjected to additional scrutiny. No one, however, will be denied the ability to vote.
- The people have spoken. The little New Hampshire town of Dixville's Notch has completed its voting. The result? Bush: 15, Kerry: 7.
It's less well-known sister town, Hart's Location, may have a more accurate prediction of what is to come. Bush: 15, Kerry: 15, Nader: 1.
Update: I'm reading different vote tallies on a number of different websites. I hope they're not going into a recount! If they can't manage to count 31 ballots, what hope is there for Florida and Ohio?
- Zogby is currently predicting a Kerry lead. They project every state except for Florida, which is too close to call. They'll have their final numbers posted at 5pm today, at which time I'll add it to our listing of notable projections.
- The contest is now closed for entries. Anyone who entered after 11:59pm Eastern last night is inelgible to win (but can remain on the listings page).
- Here's the weather foecast for today in battleground states:
(grabbed this off PoliticalWire.com)
Florida: Showers in the panhandle region, cloudy elsewhere.
Ohio: Thunderstorms and rain across the state.
Pennsylvania: Showers across most of the state.
Wisconsin: Partly to mostly cloudy, possible showers in the morning.
Minnesota: Sunny to partly cloudy.
Iowa: Mostly clear.
New Mexico: Partly cloudy.
Nevada: Sunny.
- (3:15am) I'm awake again folks. And back to work on the site. It's still dark, but hey! That's the sort of dedication I have for y'all.
November 1
- (8:15pm) I am literally falling asleep in my chair, so I'm off to sleep. I'll be back sometime late night / early morning and will continue work on the site then.
- The latest Zogby polling poll data has been updated in PA, OH, FL, WI, MN, MI, IA, NM, CO, and NV.
As near as I can tell, Zogby will release one last set of battleground states poll data tomorrow at 5:30pm Eastern. I'll enter it immediately, as it'll be the last poll data on the site and the last opportunity for our map to flip.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Arkansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Tennessee has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in South Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Arkansas has Bush and Kerry tied.
Possible Bill Clinton bounce? Survey USA notes that the trend towards Kerry is happening while the Senate race trends GOP, so the changes are probably not statistical noise.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
Survey USA says...
No sense in trying to make sense of Florida. Was tied, is tied... Maybe.
Turnout will decide who gets 27 electoral votes. Absent a clear winner, litigation is sure to follow.
- The Granite State rolling poll in New Hampshire has been updated. No major changes, but "Nader and others" support drops from 2% to 1%.
- I somehow managed to confuse a USA poll with a Wisconsin poll. Not sure how I did that (last of sleep, perhaps?), but the recent Marist poll in Wisconsin has been properly removed from the listings.
- The final Rasmussen rolling poll data has been updated in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in South Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- All right, folks. I have a job for you.
As the evening goes on, I want you to start looking around the Internet for "official" or "final" projections from media organizations, political groups, pollsters, poll websites like mine, and anything else that looks like fun.
If they have a final state-by-state projection on who will win where, e-mail me with a link to the information. But only send it to me if it's their "final" data for tonight.
I am already aware a number of these, so no need to e-mail me data for: Zogby, Strategic Vision, Rasmussen, ARG, Gallup, Resarch 2000, NBC, ABC, CBS, Electoral-vote.com, The Hotline, or Sam Wang's projection website.
- We are close to understanding how the crucial Hispanic vote will break. While African-Americans are among the most loyal Democratic voters (if not the most loyal), Hispanics are somewhat more flexible. In 2000 the Bush campaign won just 30% of the Hispanic vote and hope to improve that to 40% this year. The Kerry campaign has sought to keep Bush under 35% Latino support in an effort to maintain an advantage in the Southwest.
Well, a Zogby poll for the Miami Herald found that Bush's level of support among Hispanics has risen, but only to 32.8%. That is not what they had hoped, and may represent an opportunity for Kerry in the southwest and Florida.
It is an improvement though. Considering the vast size of the Latino population, their vote will definitely be a critical factor in future elections.
- The election is getting very sleazy in Michigan with a recorded phone message calling voters to remind them to vote for John Kerry to help make gay marriage legal.
John Kerry is, of course, opposed to the legalization of gay marriage. (And much to my husband and my annoyance, mind you. We understand the political realities involved but as a gay couple who has been together for 12 years this is a rather important issue for us).
Anyway, the calls are a sleazy campaign tactic designed to scare away voters from John Kerry. Give the article a read--it's interesting.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Opinion Dynamics poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in New Jersey has Bush and Kerry tied. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided. (This saves me the trouble of updating the map--see below story).
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- I made a few corrections on the slew of recent polls. The Ohio and Pennsylvania Gallup polls were completed October 31, not October 30. This flips Ohio to Kerry on the "if the election were held today" scenario and sends back the election to a 269-269 tie. (The country has gone from Bush to Kerry to Bush to undecided today. And it's only 2pm).
I also found the Nader number on the New Jersey Eagleton poll. He scored 2% in the last survey, a number my first source didn't bother to mention (Grrrrrrrr...). The state flips to "weak Kerry". I'll update the map in a few minutes.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- Milestone: Chelsea Clinton gave her first-ever political speech on October 30 at a Kerry rally in Florida.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- "Every election we say it depends on voter turnout. It really does this time. "
-- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), "Face the Nation," 10/31
- A new Ohio Poll poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- FYI, folks. The high voter turnout in some cities may result in lines that are several hours in length. If you will be voting with a voter with physical needs (or even if you just hate standing for that long), you may want to bring along a stool, chair, wheelchair, or other place to sit. And don't forget to pack a lunch. (In colder climates you should also bring peppermint schnapps in a flask).
- Voter turnout in 2000 was about 104 million. Democratic strategy this election season is based on a high voter turn of as many as 115 million, 120 million, or even higher. Does anyone out there know what the Republicans are predicting? Thanks!
- From Rasmussen polling: "At this time, the bin Laden tape does not appear to have had any measurable impact on the race."
- FYI. The first exit polling data will be available at approximately 11am Eastern tomorrow. I will cover it for you (assuming I don't collapse from exhuastion before then).
- Mark your calendars, folks. An eight year-old presidential trivia savant will be on Conan O'Brien on November 12th. Neil is the genius behind board game we are giving away in the election contest. (Watch for Neil's electoral prediction later today).
- CNN reported that Rehnquist is not back to work yet at the Supreme Court. It's extrmely doubtful that the Supreme Court can hear an emergency appeal (no time!), but it is worth noting that one of the most conservative justices will not present to hear the case if they do.
- A new Quinnipiac poll with Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Quinnipiac poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Quinnipiac poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- I have heard a report that the website is getting mysql (read: database) errors like this:
Warning: mysql_pconnect(): Too many connections in /home/race2004/public_html/race2004/index.php on line 7
cannot connect to mysql database 1 - please alert Stephen about this.
Please e-mail me if you receive one like this. I'm tinking with a solution, but am not making it a priority unless a lot of you are getting errors. (Today is an incredibly busy day running this site, and I'm trying to do 10000 things at once).
- Updated: I now know the story. Thanks to everyone that wrote. Here goes...
Ohio has been having a big debate over challengers at polling places. The practice is allowed under state law, but when rumors began that Republicans would perform mass challenges in minority-populated areas, Democrats cried foul and immediately sued in court.
Last week a federal judge issued a restraining order against the presence of challengers during the elections pending a full hearing on the issue. The GOP appealed and the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the injunction.
Not knowing which way the final ruling would go, the Secretary of State announced that he was disallowing challengers at this election sites this year. The state Attorney General (both are Republicans who are running for governor in 2006) announced that it was an illegal order and could not be enforced under state law. And while the Secretary of State's office is reponsible for setting the framework for elections, the Attorney General's office implements them. So the matter was in legal limbo and everyone looked to the courts.
Over the weekend the federal judge heard arguments on the matter. At 1:30am this morning she issued a ruling that the practice of allowing challengers was unconstitutional because it amounted to voter harassment. Republicans immediately said they would appeal.
And that's where are now. The Republicans are appealing to the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals who will presumably issue a ruling later today. Whether or not several thousand Republican challengers will be allowed into urban polling areas resides on the decision.
Drop me an e-mail when you hear the court's ruling. (I'm incredibly busy today with this site and barely have time to think, much less look at the wires).
Update: A second federal judge has ruled against the GOP having challengers in Ohio polling locations. No word from the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals yet.
- Electronic Markets are a good measure of probabilities, in which knowledgeable amateurs and experts buy stock (real or imagined) in products, candidates, or other hypothetical possibilities. Over a period of time they buy and trade stock based on the their perceptions of the possibilities becoming real. Electronic markets have been found to be an excellent predictor of future events.
For example, this is a pricing graph of the Democratic primary process. More interesting, however, is the pricing graph of the Bush/Kerry race in regards to the final popular vote. As of October 31 at 11:59pm, the exchange gives Kerry a 45% probability of winning the popular vote, and Bush at 55% chance. We'll know in a few days how each person does.
- A new Granite State poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead. The 2% for Nader is actually "Nader and others".
- A new Marist College poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A few weeks ago I posted a picture of this awful Cuyahoga County. At the time we weren't sure if it was doctored or not.
Well, one of my readers saw the actual absentee ballot in this county. According to him...
What was misleading about the picture is that the names and the punch-card are two TOTALLY separate items. As it happens, you CAN line up the list of names next to the punch-card, and interestingly enough, Kerry-Edwards winds up next to the proper punch slot. And more amusingly, Bush-Cheney (which I think you were supposed to punch "2" if you wanted to vote for them) winds up next to the 12, by sheer coincidence.
So a "1" was not wiped off the "12." You just simply aren't supposed to hold the two items next to each other. In fact, if you got the absentee package in the mail, it wouldn't even occur to you to do that, because there are many other columns which you need to punch for other races. This was just a coincidence that someone happened to notice.
- Zogby conducted the first ever mobile phone presidential poll using SMS messaging. Kerry is leading Bush 55-40 among 18-29 year-olds with a margin of error of 1.2%.
Because more than 97% of respondants said they planned to vote, this should be considered a likely voter model. The likely voter model in Zogby's conventional poll suggests that the same age group favors Kerry 55-41.
This comparison is important because conventional polling is not allowed to poll via cellphone. Some analysts worried that cell phone-only users might be more likely to vote for one candidate or the other, thereby adding error to the traditional polling process. This poll suggests that is not the case, putting at ease political pollsters, analyists, and campaign managers everywhere.
- One site user in Kentucky ran a little non-scientific poll on Halloween evening. Trick-or-treaters could choose from three candy bowls: Kerry (multi-flaovored Gobstoppers), Bush (Atomic Fireballs), and Nader (Safety Pops).
The results, Kerry 81, Bush 39, Nader 2. So if Kerry wins in an upset in Kentucky, you heard it here first.
October 31
- One of Race2004's many "spies" out there says he has seen the Kerry internal poll data for Missouri. He couldn't remember the exact numbers, but says that Kerry campaign believes they are just a single point behind Bush.
- I have corrected the Wisconsin poll numbers for the latest CNN-Gallup-USA Today survey. CNN provided conflicting information in two difference places. One had Kerry winning 52-44, the other had Bush winning 52-44. The USA Today article about the same poll has Bush winning 52-44, so I have adjusted the data to recognize this as the true figure. (I also alerted CNN about their error, but doubt they'll fix it).
- (12:20am). I had incorrect Zogby data posted for about 30 minutes. The correct numbers are now posted.
- I have finished updating the rolling polls from Rasmssen and Zogby. The data is now current as of October 31 (for Zogby) and October 29 (for Rasmussen). This is the most current data available.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in New York has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in California has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Alabama has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Maryland has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Illinois has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from weak Bush to strong Bush.
- A new Rasmussen poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new NBC12 poll without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Dan Jones & Associates poll with Nader in Utah has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Kentucky has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Arizona has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from weak Bush to strong Bush.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Maine has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Colorado has Bush in the lead.
This survey also has Amendment 36 failing 32 to 65.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Eagleton Poll poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Columbus Dispatch poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush and Kerry tied.
- The Race2004 Predict the Electoral Map Invitational is proceeding well. We've had 1,900+ entries so far. Wow! I figured we'd attract perhaps 20% of that number. You people never cease to surprise me.
Obviously, all of the likely Bush-Kerry electoral combinations were taken long ago. So I am adding an additional prize. This will go to a random person who correctly guesses the final electoral count total (subject to all the tiebreakers in the rules).
So if you haven't entered the contest yet, go submit your entry. You can still win!
- A new Research and Polling poll with Nader in New Mexico has Bush in the lead.
- The Mitchell Research rolling poll in Michigan has been updated.
October 30
- Updated! Everything should now be correct. (1:30am Eastern).
- I just updated the Rasmussen and Zogby rolling polls with last night's data. Now I'll go update the maps...
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- Hispanics nationwide are set to break to Kerry by almost 2:1 on election day giving Kerry a boost in the battleground states of Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and to a lesser extent in Ohio and Michigan.
Bush supporters can remain cheered by the knowledge that this poll was done by Zogby, whos polls have often leaned towards Kerry this election season. Also, Cubans in Florida remain loyal to Bush by a 4:1 ratio.
- A new Minnesota Poll poll with Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
It is worth noting that Republicans have protested this election season in front of the Star-Tribune, the paper that sponsors this poll. Picketers allege that the poll is biased in favor of Democratic candidates.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in New Mexico has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Minnesota has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in West Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Nevada has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Colorado has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Arkansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Selzer & Co. poll with Nader in Iowa has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in New Mexico has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new ARG poll with Nader in New Mexico has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in New Hampshire has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new ARG poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Bush and Kerry tied. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Illinois has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Indiana has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Maryland has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Nevada has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Research 2000 poll with Nader in Connecticut has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Temple University poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- Six months ago George Bush endorsed the Federal Marriage Amendment to the Constitution, a dead-on-arrival issue in Congress. Why did he urge Congress to pass the FBA? Because Republican strategists believed it would help turn out evangelical vote, the core strategy of the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign.
What makes this confusing is that a week ago Bush said that he supports civil unions for gay and lesbian couples. Or more accurately, supports states choosing to make it an option. It was lukewarm support at best, but it made a lot of people scratch their heads and wonder why he was making a sudden tack to the middle. Now we have the answer why.
From the beginning, Kerry has tacked to the center in an effort to attract undecided and swing voters. Bush has worked to rally his conservative base, believing that if the 4+ million evangelicals who have been sitting out past elections vote then he's a shoe-in for reelection.
A true enough strategy, but according to the Los Angeles Times the Bush strategy is not working.
A poll published last week by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 70% of self-described evangelicals or born-again Christians planned to vote for the president, down from 74% in the same survey three weeks earlier. That was not only a slight decline, but lower than the 80% to 90% support that Bush campaign officials had been forecasting.
- A new POS (GOP) poll without Nader in Colorado has Bush in the lead. This poll usually reports Nader data. My guess is that the poll asked about Nader but the article simply didn't print it.
October 29
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll without Nader in Georgia has Bush in the lead.
- I have once again updated polls from Rasmussen and Zogby in Ohio (2), Florida (2), Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota (2), Pennsylvania (2), New Mexico, Nevada, and Michigan (2).
No states have flipped, but the numbers have been slightly tweaked.
- A new Siena Research poll without Nader in New York has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 poll without Nader in Illinois has Kerry in the lead. Badnarik also polled 1% in this survey.
- A new Scripps Research Center poll without Nader in Texas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in New York has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Texas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Valley Research poll without Nader in Utah has Bush in the lead.
- Need a political and bad taste Halloween costume for your child? Take a look at these suggestions.
- A new F-D University poll with Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead. Nader's 2% in this poll is actually for "Nader and other candidates."
- Political Wire reports from the Washington Post on the campaign strategies for the final weekend:
"With the approach of the final weekend of campaigning, each candidate's strategy, both geographical and rhetorical, came into sharper focus," the Washington Post reports. "Geographically, both men will concentrate almost all their efforts on Florida and on the upper midwestern states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio."
Meanwhile, KITV-TV says Democrats and Republicans "are turning a lot of attention to Hawaii in a presidential race that has become unexpectedly close..." Dick Cheney will be Hawaii for a rally on Sunday; Al Gore and Alexandra Kerry are scheduled to arrive today.
CNN reports Bill Clinton "will be back on the campaign trail" today "for a three-day trip to help get out the vote for" Kerry. He "will travel from New York to a pair of deadlocked battleground states -- Nevada on Friday and New Mexico on Saturday -- before returning Sunday to rally the faithful in his native Arkansas."
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 ($) poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Insider Advantage ($) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Hamilton Beattie ($, Dem) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A Public Opinion Strategies (GOP) poll in Colorado shows Amendment 36 (the Colorado Reform Ballot Initiative) headed for failure, 60-32.
- "I am at the point now where I'm not sure I know what to believe from any pollster, including our own."
-- Kerry-Edwards '04 adviser Mike McCurry, "Paula Zahn Now," CNN, 10/28
- A new Florida Poll poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Field Poll poll without Nader in California has Kerry in the lead.
- A new West Chester Univ. poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- The new Zogby polls added below were done by e-mail through Zogby Interactive, the online polling firm. The Zogby rolling poll that has been updated lately has been done by phone.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in West Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Tennessee has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Arkansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby poll with Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from weak Kerry to strong Kerry.
- Okay, they're updated. I have updated polls from Rasmussen, Zogby, and Mitchell Research in Ohio (2), Florida (2), Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota (2), Pennsylvania (2), New Mexico, Nevada, and Michigan (3).
Nothing on the map flipped, but I did find a handful of new Zogby polls that need to be typed in...
- I have changed my mind on how we handle rolling polls. With 4 days before the election, this is no time to be building an archive of polls. We need current data and we need it now!
I am therefore going to update the recent Rasmussen, Mitchell, and Zogby polls with newer data. Expect the map to be out of whack until about 10am Eastern time or so as I do this. I'll post a note when I'm done.
- A new Research 2000 poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- The rolling Mitchell Research poll in Michigan is out. The data is 2/3 similar to yesterday's so I won't type in a new entry. But Kerry's lead over Bush is now 46 to 40 (was 47 to 42). Nader still polls at 1%.
These rolling polls are a real hassle for me. When I designed this site I had never heard of one, so I failed to design a good methodology for handling them. If I type in every update of a rolling poll then the state's calculations gets choked with polls from that company. My solution? As I've been doing with Zogby and Rasmussen, wait for the data to "expire" then then type in new results. (And think about how I'm going to design the site differently for Race2008).
Rasmussen's expires every seven days, so we'll have final Rasmussen poll results on Monday. Zogby's is every three days, so watch for another update from their eight states tomorrow night. We'll have the final Mitchell Research poll in a few days.
- A new Badger poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
October 28
- A bit more Hawaii news. Vice-President Cheney will be campaigning in Hawaii this Sunday. Kerry's daughter is also heading to Hawaii as well. The Dem's are taking out ads. All we need are GOP ads and we have a full-fledged battle. (Oh, and a few more polls confirming the state is up for grabs wouldn't hurt either).
- A new Davis & Associates poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
- It's official. The Democratic Party is officially running ads in Hawaii. Looks like the battle for another state is officially a "go". Does anyone know if the GOP is running ads there as well?
- A new Granite State Poll poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided.
- A new Research 2000 poll with Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Rhode Island has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Alabama has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Kansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- We tweaked the server configuration to hopefully speed up the server. You should notice an improvement. I will keep an eye on the site over the next 24 hours to see how well it is keeping up. I know it has been very sluggish lately at peak times.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon ($) poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in New Jersey has Bush and Kerry tied. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
- A new LA Times ($) poll with Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush in the lead.
- A new LA Times ($) poll with Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Minnesota has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Minnesota has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Michigan has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Michigan has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new LA Times ($) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- Television ads are airing on both sides of the Amendment 36 issue in Colorado. I haven't seen any new polling in the past week, but last I heard the amendment was in trouble. Perhaps the pro-amendment tv ads will make the case? We'll know in less than a week.
- Paraphrased from the National Journal's The Hotline
...With Bush renewing his focus on Michigan and continuing intensity in New Hampshire and New Mexico, one can get Bush to 270 without ANY of the FL-OH-PA states. Start with Bush at a quasi EV base of 227 (which does not include ANY of the FL-OH-PA states) and now add Minnesota (+10=237), New Mexico (+5=242), Iowa (+7=249), Wisconsin (+10=259) and Michigan (+17=276).
(By the way, take Arkansas away from Bush and guess what, he's STILL at 270; or take Minnesota away from Bush but give Arkansas and New Hampshire to Bush and he's at 270...)
Now, analysts will tell you, getting over 270 without FL-OH-PA is the equivalent of drawing a straight in Texas Hold'em, and doing it via the "river" card. But when one looks at the demographic groups where Bush is over-performing his '00 result -- married women, rural whites (or rural Hispanics in NM) etc. -- the strategy makes sense. The states Bush needs to win to compenstate for losing the urban/suburban heavy FL-OH-PA are heavy in those groups.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new ARG poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided.
- A new Marist College poll with Nader in New York has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Ipsos poll without Nader in Maryland has Kerry in the lead.
- The Mitchell Research poll in MI has been updated. I realized today that it is a rolling poll, meaning it is conducted over several days. New data is added each day, and after three days the "oldest" day of data is dropped out.
So rather than clog Michigan's analysis with data from a single company, I updated it to today. The new data has an upswing for Kerry. He was up a point yesterday. Today he is up 5 points.
- The case of the missing ballots in Florida heats up. Broward County alone (a Democratic-leaning district) has lost 60,000 absentee ballots so far. The ballots were either lost in the mail or on the way to the post office. (Or never even shipped to the post office, I suppose, although the article didn't say that).
- A new Quinnipiac poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from weak Bush to undecided.
- A new Quinnipiac poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead. This is actually an "old" poll from last week.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll with Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead. This is the current version of NC Mason-Dixon poll.
October 27
- A little update in the battleground(?) state of Hawaii. One of our Hawaiian users says that MoveOn.org is running the occasional commercial there. He also says he has seen ads from the Democratic National Committee, although it wasn't clear whether those were locally bought ads or ads carried through because of a national buy.
- A new Humphrey Institute poll without Nader in Minnesota has Bush in the lead.
- A new Humphrey Institute poll with Nader in Minnesota has Bush in the lead. Badnarik also polled 1% in this survey. (And yes, that is Nader at 5%. Hard to believe, eh?)
- A new Fairbank & Assoc. ($, Dem) poll with Nader in Colorado has Bush and Kerry tied. The state shifts from weak Bush to undecided.
- A new Univ. of Arkansas poll without Nader in Arkansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Moore ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- "I was exercising my political expression."
-- Barry Seltzer, on allegedly trying to run over Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) with his Cadillac, Sarasota Herald Tribune, 10/27
Remember folks, your civic duty on election day doesn't require that you express yourself quite so enthusiastically.
- A new Gallup poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 poll without Nader in Illinois has Kerry in the lead.
- With all the talk going on about ballot problems in states and the possibility of post-election lawsuits, I thought you'd find this interesting. AmericaBlog had this interesting report from one of their users:
I never got my voter registration card through the mail, decided to go and vote early yesterday just in case there was a problem so I could fix it if need be. There was. I'm not on The List. I can't vote. This morning I went to the Supervisor of Elections office and they confirmed that. Then I called 1-866-OUR-VOTE and spoke to a lawyer to register my complaint. He told me that Broward county has been registering an "absurdly high" volume of complaints, that pretty much everything that can go awry has, and that so far 15,000 people have called from Broward and Dade counties because they didn't recieve their registration cards. Apparently nobody has been able to get through to the Election Supervisors office by phone for more than a week now, so some of them called OUR VOTE. *sigh* When they spoke to the Election Board about it , the problem was blamed on the postal service.
The post office lost 15,000 ballots? There could easily be a lawsuit on this one.
- ABC News has a special commentary on why undecided voters may buck the historical trend and break for the president instead of the challenger.
- From DC's Political Report: Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) quietly has recused himself from the state panel responsible for certifying what could be crucial vote totals. The decision marks a reversal for the governor, who had defied a steady drumbeat of criticism for choosing to keep his seat on the state Elections Canvassing Commission even though his brother, President Bush, is on the ballot.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Nevada has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in New Mexico has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Michigan has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Colorado has Kerry in the lead.
- A new LA Times poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Bush.
- A new LA Times poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush and Kerry tied. The state shifts from weak Kerry to undecided.
- A new LA Times poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- USA Election Atlas has a great map of the times that polls close in various states. Print it out and keep it by your television on election night.
Speaking of maps, I'll be putting up a handy printable and colorable map on election night for your analytical convienence. It'll even put a few comments on it, such as things to watch for, possible strategies for the candidates, and the like.
- A new St. Cloud State Univ. poll without Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen poll with Nader in Nevada has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen poll with Nader in New Mexico has Bush in the lead. Badnarik polled at 1%.
- A new Rasmussen poll without Nader in Arizona has Bush in the lead. Badnarik polled at 3%.
- A new SE Louisana Univ. poll with Nader in Louisiana has Bush in the lead.
- Do you fancy yourself a political analyst? Think you can make a better projection than my site? Tired of political pundits whose politics you can't stand?
Here's your chance to be an election star. Race2004 is pleased to announce the Race2004 "Predict the Winning Map" Invitational.
The rules are simple: You have between now and November 1st at 11:59pm Eastern to predict the final electoral map after the election. You may work with anyone you want, consult any source you wish, and conduct as much research as you can. The longer you wait the more accurate poll data you can look at. But the earlier entries have an advantage in that the early entry wins in case of a tie.
The winner gets a prize (plus fame and fortune), and everyone is eligible to win. I'll even be putting in Race2004's final prediction before the election, as well as my own personal twist. Starting next Monday afternoon I'll be adding predictions from pollsters, media organizations, and other notables.
So put on your thinking cap and start researching. The presidency is waiting for you.
- A new Richard Day Research poll without Nader in Illinois has Kerry in the lead. The online article where I found the poll does not contain the dates or margin of error, so I contacted the polling company directly to obtain that information.
- Are you a "likely voter"? Every polling company has their own criterion for determing what constitutes a likely voter. Check out this flash program from USA Today about Gallup's likely voter criteron.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mitchell Research poll with Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Quinnipiac poll with Nader in New Jersey has Bush and Kerry tied.
October 26
- FYI, folks. Gallup has had some of the most unusual numbers during the entire election season, with poll results that often blow away Strategic Vision (GOP) when it comes to giving estimates of Bush's popularity.
I have not discounted Gallup for the same reason I have not discounted the polls of anyone else: who am I to say they haven't found a more accurate methodology? Only the general election will tell.
In the meantime, however, here's a little lesson from the Beacon Journal. It explains how Gallup selects its likely voters.
The Gallup Poll... grades respondents on their answers to seven questions, including whether they typically vote, if they know where they are supposed to vote and if they voted in the 2000 presidential election. Only those scoring in the top 55 percent -- the pollsters' estimate of the likely turnout -- are counted in the poll. The responses of the bottom 45 percent are ignored.
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
- A new Midwest Research Inst. poll with Nader in Kansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Midwest Research Inst. poll with Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- I found a new poll in Illinois, but the article was written so badly that there isn't enough information to type in the article. The article mentions several times that this an "ABC7News exclusive", but doesn't bother to mention the margin of error or the dates which the poll was taken ("last week").
I can type in a poll without a margin of error, but can't add one until I have a date for the poll. I have e-mailed the pollster inquiring about both pieces of information. If any of you see the poll anywhere else (especially in the 10/26's Illinois newspapers), let me know.
- Just an FYI. The validity of that second poll in Hawaii has been confirmed. I receved an e-mail from the staff of the National Journal's The Hotline. They called the pollster who confirmed the poll was of all Hawaii voters, not just those on Oahu.
- The BBC is reporting that the Republican Party in Florida appears to be planning mass challenges against black voters when they reach the polls on election day.
- I'm searching for some poll numbers and am wondering if any of you can help. Steve Brozak is running against Michael Ferguson in the 7th Congressional District of New Jersey. I want to find out how they're both polling, but haven't been able to find anything. Does anyone out there have any data on this race? If so, please e-mail me. Thanks!
- Nader news: Without comment the US Supreme Court turned down Nader's appeal to appear on the ballot in Ohio.
This effectively ends Nader's national attempts to appear on the ballot. He has one last option in Illinois: to appeal to the US Supreme Court. But they have already denied his appeals in OH and PA, and there is no reason to believe he will be any more successful in an IL appeal.
If you scroll to near the bottom of this page you will find a list of state ballots on which Nader will appear.
- A little FYI. If you are wondering why some non-battleground states like South Dakota and Oklahoma are getting so many polls, it's because these many of states also have close Senate races. The pollsters are asking about Bush and Kerry just as a tangental issue to their real questions about the Senate race.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in South Dakota has Bush in the lead.
- The Rasmussen poll in Ohio has been updated by a day. Bush is now at 50 (up 1 point), Kerry remains at 46.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in California has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Arkansas has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Univ. of New Orleans poll without Nader in Louisiana has Bush in the lead.
- Sorry the site is going so slow this afternoon. A site that links to us got a plug in the Wall Street Journal, so I'm guessing our slowdown is due to an influx of extra traffic from his site. I won't know for sure until 1AM when our web stats program runs, but that is the most likely reason.
If the problem continues beyond today I'll make some refinements to the code to speed up the site. The php coding I use is not particularly efficient, as I didn't think that I would ever get anywhere near this level of traffic. Yesterday we had over 29,000 visitors, and today will likely be a lot more than that.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Gallup ($) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon poll without Nader in South Dakota has Bush in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 poll without Nader in Indiana has Bush in the lead.
- A new ARG poll with Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
- A new ARG poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- The Boston Globe is reporting that the Kerry campaign has no plans to advertise in Hawaii. They are confident that the recent poll numbers are a best-case scenario for Bush, and that he will definitely lose the state come election day. Some of the pro-Kerry 527 groups are somewhat less certain, and are discussing the transfer of funds to Hawaii to for last-minute television advertisements. (Perhaps because the 527's do not have access to the same polling that the campaigns do? Then again they're probably going their own private polling in the meantime).
The Bush campaign has yet to decide whether to advertise in Hawaii. My guess is that they are delaying the decision while they put more detailed polls in the field.
- A new Keystone poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new RKM Research poll without Nader in Nebraska has Bush in the lead.
- A new Wilson Research (GOP) poll without Nader in Oklahoma has Bush in the lead.
October 25
- A new Gallup poll with Nader in Florida has Bush in the lead.
- A new Arizona State University poll without Nader in Arizona has Bush in the lead. The Liberterian candidate, Badnarik, polled 1% in this survey.
- With just a week left before the election, Bush has seized the lead and may become the next president of... England?!? A very amusing satire of an election projection.
- A new Rasmussen poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
This is actually a slightly old poll (October 14) paid for by the Liberterian candidate. Badnarik polled 1% in this poll.
- A new Rasmussen poll without Nader in Florida has Bush and Kerry tied.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
- A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Minnesota has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in South Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
- A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
- Those that know me well know how fond I am of discussing the many negative aspects of the world's most worthless person: Paris Hilton (of Hilton Hotel family fame). Well, she's done it again. According to the Hotline... Paris Hilton -- who posed in a "Vote or Die!" t-shirt -- "has not found the time to register," according to election officials in CA and NY.
- A new Research 2000 ($) poll with Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
- As you can see, I have re-typed in the controversial Hawaii poll about Hawaii. The Hotline picked it up, and I consider them a source of corroborating evidence.
I will manually flip Hawaii to "weak Kerry" in a few minutes. Once a third poll comes out the state will begin flipping normally like every other state.
- A new SMS Research poll without Nader in Hawaii has Bush in the lead.
- A new Mason-Dixon ($) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
- A new Research 2000 ($) poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from strong Kerry to weak Kerry.
- A new Insider Advantage ($) poll with Nader in Florida has Bush and Kerry tied.
- I found another article about the rule that undecideds break against the incumbent.
- In the past few days I have received 12,000 visitors from http://story.news.yahoo.com/fc. Did anyone find my site mentione in a Yahoo news story somewhere? If so, I would be very grateful if you could e-mail me a link to the story.
Update: Thanks to Michelle for informing me that Yahoo has placed me on the left side of this page. Not an article, but with 12,000 clicks so far it's certainly effective advertising.
- It appears that the awful Ohio ballot may be a faked picture. Not having seen the original ballot I can't say one way or the other, but one reader pointed out that if you turned "2" into "12" and "4" into "14", the arrows would pointing at the correct boxes.
Just goes to show that you can't believe everything you see on the 'net. It may be true, but it very well may not.
- A new Franklin Pierce College poll with Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead. The state shifts from undecided to weak Kerry.
October 24
- Leiden from Holland e-mailed this link to a blog about who and what is endorsing whom for president.
It has some interesting endorsements on it, such as American Conservative magazine's endorsement of Kerry. (Yup, that's right. John Kerry).
- Rumors abound on whether Hawaii is in play. The weblog Star Bulletin where the poll was announced. According to the reader, the editor stated that the graphic was incorrect and the 46-45 number reflects the opinion of the entire state, not just Oahu.
My policy on this site has always been not to list a poll until we see the results "officially" in print (ideally someplace where I can provide a link to the data). Because of their casual nature, blogs are not considered official. As such, I have made the decision not to include this poll because I cannot confirm in print that the site.
I am doubly-sure of this decision since we now have two conflicting reports. One from a weblog that claims to have the full data for the poll, and that only Oahu is 46-45. The other from someone who claims the editor says the 46-45 is for the entire state.
Someone is obviously mistaken, and until I know whom it is and see poll results in print stating the are for the entire state, I will not list the poll on this site.
I will continue to monitor this issue closely. Please e-mail me if you have any additional information on the subject.
- The correct data for Wisconsin is now posted.
And before you e-mail me (a bunch of you have so far), I did NOT make a typo in the new New Mexico numbers. I triple-checked. Those are the correct numbers, and Bush is doing better almost across the board.
I have e-mailed Zogby to ask they double-check to make sure there wasn't a data entry area for NM. More likely though it's a statistical abberation. Remember, polls only accurately reflect reality 19 out of 20 times. The other 5% of the time it will return results that do not reflect views of the population within the margin of error.
I'll post a correction if it turns out to be a data entry area on Zogby's part.
- A new Zogby ($) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
- The "Bush is barely winning" poll in Hawaii has been removed from the site. The poll turned out not to be a poll of the entire state, but rather a poll of one of the islands, Oahu. Oahu is a Republican stronghold on the island so it is unlikely that the rest of the state will be as firmly a battleground as Oahu, and accordingly, the state is not likely to be as close of a battleground as some suggest.
Sorry for causing a panic. I'll flip Hawaii back to "strong Kerry" in a momement.
- An impressively observant (Alan H, aka "Eagle Eyes") reader e-mailed to say I had the data for New Mexico off. Sure enough, I typed in the numbers from the wrong column. The error has been fixed.
The same reader noticed that the Wisconsin
